Radhakrishnan, R; Pavithran, I; Livina, V; Kurths, J; Sujith, R I (2025) Early warnings are too late when parameters change rapidly. Scientific Reports, 15 (1). 20256 ISSN 2045-2322

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Abstract

Early Warning Signals (EWSs) forewarn a sudden transition from a desired state to an undesired state, commonly known as tipping1,2. However, we observe that EWSs detect an impending tipping past bifurcation points when control parameters are varied fast; this questions the applicability of EWSs in real-world systems. When a control parameter is changed at a finite rate, the tipping is also delayed providing a borrowed stability3 (in parameter space) before the system tips. Within the region of borrowed stability, we revert the control parameter quick enough upon receiving the warning to prevent the system from tipping. In this study, we use the Hurst
exponent as EWS in a thermoacoustic system, a horizontal Rijke tube. We reveal that quick reversal of the control parameter cannot always prevent tipping in real-world systems, due to the variability observed in the warning point received. For fast variation of parameters, where preventive measures fall short, we demonstrate EWS-based control actions (reducing the control parameter to a value below the fold point) to rescue the system, after the tipping. Our results in a real-world system for a fast variation of parameter highlights the limits of applicability of EWSs in preventing tipping.

Item Type:	Article
Subjects:	Mathematics and Scientific Computing > Signal Processing
Divisions:	Data Science
Identification number/DOI:	10.1038/s41598-025-06525-5
Last Modified:	14 Sep 2026 14:57
URI:	https://eprintspublications.npl.co.uk/id/eprint/10525