Shiny Sanadhanan, S (2025) Modelling Future Impact in Response to Changes in Public R&D Investment Into NPL. NPL Report. IEA 32

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Abstract

This report presents a framework for forecasting impact from R&D investment in the form of number of firms supported by the National Physical Laboratory (NPL), offering insights into the long-term impact of funding decisions. The report adapts the principle of maximum entropy to derive the probability distribution of marginal value gained by a firm through an instance of support from NPL and quantifies its relationship with NPL’s accumulated stock of knowledge built through sustained R&D investment. Three scenarios – an increase, a decrease, and a one-year omission in R&D spend – are analysed to illustrate the implications for firm engagement.

Item Type:	Report/Guide (NPL Report)
NPL Report No.:	IEA 32
Divisions:	Strategy Directorate
Identification number/DOI:	10.47120/npl.IEA32
Last Modified:	04 Feb 2026 10:02
URI:	https://eprintspublications.npl.co.uk/id/eprint/10259